My Take
The market is a crazy thing sometimes. Just when you think something has run too much, it continues higher. A couple of good examples from the past recent days that I’ve point out. I am NOT in either one of these trades, but listeners of the podcast are so KUDOS to everyone who has printed 💰 on these.
Kohls ( KSS 0.00%↑ )
This was pointed out Steph in the chat on YouTube where I go live every morning. If you want a link to the newsletter it was in - HERE IT IS - Friday, July 18th. Trading for $9.63 if you bought it then. Today it got over $20 so you essentially doubled your money in just 2 trading days.
OpenDoor ( OPEN 0.00%↑ )
Another short squeeze likely, but there are analysts who think this is just a turn around. Just right now I saw this video - they expect this to be like Carvana CVNA 0.00%↑.
I provided this one on Thursday, July 17th with a Trendspider strategy to import that has had tremendous success.
Here’s the updated chart with the strategy that’s up over 366% in just 7 days.
There is value in even taking small plays on things like this. It’s not about hitting home runs with trades, but singles work as well. Long term portfolio management is far different than trading, but in a bull market at the top, you can make some really great trades because the market can go up far longer than you expect.
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Pod Notes
Tuesday
🔥Indicators may tell the story
Let’s talk about the indicators of QQQ 0.00%↑ and SPY 0.00%↑ and how they show overbought. Sure they can stay that way for longer so you don’t want to sell, but what does the “peak” or top look like? Maybe it’s the cryptodickbutts token absolutely RIPPING
🎩 Top 10 stocks YTD
And here are the top 10 stocks ytd of that QQQ 0.00%↑ rally
🎵 Another stock to look at that’s been KILLING IT
Now let’s talk about a top 2025 stocks, a stop 2H 2025 stock and an alpha pick stock. This has been a huge winner in all of them - CRDO 0.00%↑ . Yesterday I gave you a huge winner - here’s another one. Is there more room to run?
❤️ Every Reaction is an Over Reaction
I am a big believer in every reaction is an over reaction. EQT 0.00%↑ was the biggest loser in the S&P and nat gas crashed yesterday.
Remember BOIL 0.00%↑ and KOLD 0.00%↑ to take advantage of these moves
Or just energy like EQT 0.00%↑ as it does power ai
And Steve cress just put out an analysis with a strong buy on PBR 0.00%↑
Remember - my long term energy play is MPLX 0.00%↑ and I trade others.
🚪 Opendoor ( OPEN 0.00%↑ ) might hold the key to a hotter real estate sector?
OPEN 0.00%↑ was the darling. If you remember last week I brought up that it was most likely a short squeeze - BUT - then you had RKT 0.00%↑ getting pushed up too.
And is a RKT 0.00%↑ getting a pump around it? Resistance seems to be $15
Oh - and OSCR 0.00%↑ was way up too.
But the charts tell the story yesterday - the mid morning run seemed to lose steam. At some point this rally is going to dip - and what are you going to do? Do you have your list of 5-10 stocks you’re going to buy no questions asked?
⭕ Circle ( CRCL 0.00%↑ ) - My look at it
One comment from Charlie on Spotify asked why I’m afraid of circle group.
CRCL 0.00%↑ - I could be wrong, but the business model is mainly based on interest payments. When interest rates go down, so does their margin and while they may expand the base - what about when competition starts? What about when banks start issuing their own stable coin? I could be completely wrong and I’ve definitely missed out - but I just don’t like the valuation and growth prospects. This could be a PLTR 0.00%↑ or HOOD 0.00%↑ so I went and asked perplexity.
Key point - MOST income comes from interest and it’s trading 168 times forward earnings with 15% revenue growth over 1 year
Take HOOD 0.00%↑ - 71 times forward earnings and 60% growth over 1 year and a much better business model
And about the comments like “should I buy” or “should I sell”. I won’t answer those because I’m not you. You will make mistakes. You will buy and lose money. You will sell to see the stock go up even more. You will also time things perfectly. But I’m not managing your portfolio or your money. We don’t have the same goals, risk tolerance or financial situations.
And if you’re going to ask me about a stock. Most likely I will tell you I don’t own it and that’s enough of my opinion. If I don’t own it then that’s your answer - I haven’t found it valuable enough to put money in to it. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t. I don’t own HOOD 0.00%↑ or PLTR 0.00%↑ or many others that have done incredibly well. But whether you buy or sell stocks is your decision and I am not here to guide you with the buy or sell - just to give you a way to evaluate them.
👮Cybersecurity - it should be in your portfolio
I love PANW 0.00%↑ and this makes it CRAZY strong. But S 0.00%↑ was up 10% on this one.
I was talking about this on spaces yesterday and one panelist brought up OKTA 0.00%↑ . It’s an alpha pick but he’s in it and he is a small cap investor and he said it’s incredibly cheap and expects it to continue going. It’s made a dip and is 27% under its Wall Street target. Alpha picks picked it in Feb 2024 and while it’s up 7% - the S&P is up 25% so this has under performed in the portfolio.
🥕Others
ALAB 0.00%↑ didn’t have news - it’s up 20% yesterday and NBIS 0.00%↑ pulled back.
And in semi’s NVTS 0.00%↑ was up 25% and this is the one that I went over that Shay loves - but probably not at this price.
If this is real and they get rid of the PDT rule - that’s HUGE for EVERYONE with smaller accounts.
🗯️Is this the bubble?
A friend sent me this video to get my thoughts. It goes over the semiconductor trade. I told him that if the pullback exists, load up on SOXL 0.00%↑ or USD 0.00%↑ as they are triple leveraged ETF’s on the semis. Look at the charts on these from the April lows.
And if you don’t think we’re going higher (not straight up) …. Here’s some analysis for you to read
Earnings
MEDP 0.00%↑ - wow - up 50% on earnings
KO 0.00%↑ killed it on earnings but it’s just up at that $70 mark and either needs to use this as support or it will go back under and be a buy again
LMT 0.00%↑ this morning is the biggest news missing earnings. That’s HUGE in that it seemed like this one might turn around, but it was really bad. Look for the 200 weekly SMA to be a buying opportunity, but I’m not an industrial stock trader so I don’t know this company and it has significantly under performed the $XLI and $VOO over any time period I looked at.
Keep an eye on DHI 0.00%↑ - is this the turn around after the housing slump??
Tomorrow - TSLA 0.00%↑ and GOOG 0.00%↑
Tesla - Long term - I learned buy and hold was better during it’s parabolic years and with Elon sleeping on the floor of the factory I think that’s a key it is going to be parabolic again.
Google - the street will focus on search and it’s trading at 19x earnings when the S&p is trading at 24 times earnings. I use perplexity and Grok and haven’t used google as much, but I still use gmail - I still watch like 4 hours a day of YouTube and I still go to google a few times a day - it’s not a dead company.
GOOG 0.00%↑ ai just took gold in the ai Olympics
I also like NOW 0.00%↑ - that’s an AI play and it just gave a buy on my 4 hour algorithm
And on the watch list for earnings - I looked at $NOW - I’ve wanted to buy it and it got a buy in the 4 hour algorithm yesterday. Midway in the 52 week range, 14% Wall Street price target upside, analysts raising estimates and the gap still hasn’t been filled to $1137. Indicators like MAcD and RSI are indicating maybe it’s a good time to buy.
Education
Humphrey has a great series of shorts going and this one applies to stocks. Market cap and share price. NVDA 0.00%↑ vs TSLA 0.00%↑ . How much $ amount do you have to spend to own the same % of each company?
SCANS - Stocks that have bullish entries in the 4 hour algorithm today
Leveraged ETFs
Low Cost ETFs
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