My Take
If you feel like today in the stock market is too “frothy”, let me fill you in on some facts instead of feelings. Last night on my live stream with Trendspider I mentioned I am still holding MSFT 0.00%↑ shares I bought back in 2005 and one listener responded “well it was clear to buy the Mag 7 back then”. That got me thinking about things so I went back to look at the indexes the last time things felt REALLY uncomfortable.
It was July 2020. We had just had a crazy rebound from the world shutting down and I didn’t feel like anything was worth what the market was throwing at us because the world was still shut down. Supply chains had issues and you were buying in to “promise”. Earnings expectations were lowered, the Fed had rates at 0% and was still injecting money to support the economy and the election rhetoric was just getting started while everyone was doing Zoom sessions with their families. It didn’t feel comfortable in the slightest.
Now take “timing the market”. If you had known the market would pull back to those levels coming up in October 2022 just 2 years later - would you have bought in July 2020? NO - not if you were planning to hold for 2 years. But if you were planning on holding for 1 year - ABSOLUTELY. And if you were planning on holding for 5 years (which is today), you’ve doubled your money.
The point is to know your time frame and not be afraid of all time highs. Timing the market is impossible and most smart investors bought through that 2022 downturn just like most smart investors bought in May (I don’t know too many that bought in April like I did).
You’re going to make mistakes, but don’t let “fear of all time highs” be one of those mistakes.
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Pod Notes
Thursday
🎥 Go and Watch the Trendspider LIVE I did yesterday - great tips and tricks to use the tool
I went live yesterday with Mike from Trendspider for almost 2 and a half hours talking about EVERYTHING. If you like this podcast, take a listen to that one because it’s pretty insightful.
🏛️ Markets at all time highs - should you be scared?
Want to know why I think we need a pullback? This just isn’t a normal market and there are still catalysts if tariff deals get done, the Powell rhetoric is toned down and earnings continue to look good.
Now if you’re scared of all time highs and you want to get out - maybe rethink that. I’ve been waiting for a pullback and I’ve missed out. But I’m still 85% in this market. I feel better at 95% but I’m still participating.
5 years ago after Covid and a monster run, you could have bought the VOO 0.00%↑ etf …. As of today, you’ve nearly doubled your money with VOO 0.00%↑ and chill
But look at seasonality - next month it seems to drop off… will we see that again?
🤑 Earnings are doing really well
The biggest movers are earnings related ….
IBM 0.00%↑ is crashing the Dow which is under performing the other indexes
⛽ More Pumping
Why was AEO 0.00%↑ up 30% after hours? 2 words - SYDNEY SWEENEY - THAT”S IT!!!!!! Someone posted about it on Wall Street bets and it took off. Retail plays like this are happening.
And as I type this, OPEN 0.00%↑ , KSS 0.00%↑ , GPRO 0.00%↑ and others are moving higher as well.
🏆 Let’s go over a few wins …
First $now - up 10% on earnings
Did you catch HIMS 0.00%↑ yesterday as I said short interest stocks will get pumped. It was under $50? I highlighted it and it was up 17% yesterday. Also GPRO 0.00%↑ was up 17% as well.
I had casually mentioned about CALM 0.00%↑ not being exciting with their egg prices going down. What happened? Up 20% - CRAZY
Just like I said on Monday - Catalyst watch had put out there that Trump would be making an AI speech on Wednesday and it boosted the markets. This was well known and telegraphed.
And FYI - just so you are aware - CRDO 0.00%↑ as part of this was up 5% - so my sale - bad timing. YOU WILL MAKE MISTAKES and timing the market is just not possible - like I said - I had a HUGE gain on this so I’m fine.
PSIX 0.00%↑ which I brought up on Monday dipped to $80 and was up 16% yesterday. Did you buy the dip? Did you figure out a strategy or did you just buy and hope? What’s your strategy around this - the quant still has it as a strong buy and Steve Cress said to buy it in the 2H of the year and he announced that at $59 - did you subscribe to Seeking Alpha when he held the event on June 15th? Why not?
And energy is finally getting the push from AI. OKLO 0.00%↑ was up and VST 0.00%↑ was up 10% and it has a new buy in the 4 hour algorithm.
DIS 0.00%↑ - I said if it held over $120 it will go to $150 - well it’s based at $120 and moves to a strong buy in the seeking alpha quant. Add to it there’s a rumor that espn is going to buy nfl network and red zone channel and you’ll have a sports empire at Disney.
And 2 core portfolio downgrades
XLY 0.00%↑ - probably because of $tsla
RBLX 0.00%↑ - this is just a value issue because it’s run up so much
Earnings
You had TSLA 0.00%↑ and GOOG 0.00%↑ so now what about other Mag 7
Here’s AMZN 0.00%↑
TSLA 0.00%↑ earnings - the stock sank after the call. Gene Muster’s take is right. What was good was they missed on EVERYTHING. EPS, revs, # of vehicles sold, FCF and automotive GM - which has not increased in over a year (price cuts). 2nd Q in a row of double digit volumes down and R&D spend up 18% higher than expected. Stock down small shows not a car company vs technology one.
Dan Ives is clearly a bull after this call - and when will you buy? Maybe on the 4 hour algorithm
GOOG 0.00%↑ - this one surprised me - SEARCH WAS UP!!!! Gene’s take is rock solid on this too. I think $GOOG is looking really strong at 19 times earnings while the S&P is trading at 24 times.
🎁 BONUS - A trade with confirmation that was CRAZY clear
Bonus … a stock I noticed today is LIDR 0.00%↑ - up over 200%
Just go to dailystockpick.substack.com and type in “CONFIRMATION” and there are many posts about how I trade with confirmation.
SCANS - Bullish entries in the 4 hour algorithm
BLDR 0.00%↑
CAT 0.00%↑
CELH 0.00%↑
$FNMA
FUBO 0.00%↑
SPDR Sectors
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