5-19 Pod - Moody’s Downgrade, Buffett’s Secret Buys, & AI Earnings: Your Investing Playbook for Uncertain Times - Is Gold or Crypto a buy here?

My Take

We are in a very uncertain market - back to all time highs - credit downgrades - Washington dysfunction on a tax bill and so many more things tell me to be cautious. Then you have all the data that says in markets like this, 1 year from now you’re higher and the similarities to the 1990’s saying we are only in 1997 (3 years before the crash). It all adds up to my thought that I want to be invested in the market. I do think a 10% pullback would be healthy, but with my Liberation Day strategy signaling a buy, NVDA earnings next week (which I expect to be positive) and the hedge fund money still on the sidelines, it tells me to take advantage of any dip.

When the dip happens, you’ll want to take some big swings in a YOLO portfolio, so have your watch list available and get your Webull trading account ready to make some big swings in this market to get back to all time highs.

Click on the photo and open a small account in Webull to trade as I think it’s a great market to trade in now. Remember - trading comes with risk

The Tools I use to be more efficient and save time

1. Trendspider

Click on this link for savings and more details, but once you sign up for an annual plan, just contact me to get all the tools that I use like my 4 hour algorithm, custom watch lists and scanners.

Take it for a test drive - then sign up for a yearly plan and get all the tools I use including the 4 hour algorithm where I showed today $MSTR $TSLA and many others have a far greater return when back tested over 2 years.

2. Seeking Alpha Bundle (Premium and Alpha Picks) - save over $150

Get both Seeking Alpha Premium and Alpha Picks together and save over $150. Both these services are described below. Click the link for more details.

3. Seeking Alpha (FREE 7 DAY trial and SAVE $30 MORE)

Find top Quant stocks and ETF’s by getting Seeking Alpha Premium and a FREE 7 day trial. I use this constantly to find opportunities between the Quant, AI analysis, my portfolios, the analysis and even the TOP STOCKS.

From the Quant rating for stocks, to AI analyst reports, it’s the most comprehensive stock site I have found. I use it for research and my go to for all fundamental analysis of stocks, ETF’s and even crypto.

4. Get Alpha Picks - it beats the S&P

A rules based portfolio that outperforms the S&P and so far has outperformed the rebound from liberation day as well.

And if you want to see how I set up the portfolio, here’s the YouTube video you can watch.

Remember the Gary Bundle

The optimum bundle that I can’t live without is:

1. Trendspider - or some type of chart program that works for you.

2. Seeking Alpha Bundle that includes Premium (which is the Quant rating for thousands of stocks and the NEW Virtual Analyst Reports that make it easy to understand fundamentals ) and the Alpha Picks portfolio that is a data driven portfolio with a performance that almost triples the S&P.

Spotify, Apple and YouTube Links

Spotify

Apple

YouTube

Pod Notes

Monday

Investing Experts Podcast - I am recording it tomorrow

I’m recording the Investing Experts Podcast with Seeking Alpha tomorrow so I spent all weekend doing research since they haven’t sent me any agenda whatsoever! They said “let’s just chat” which is scary AF when Gary numbers come in to play. If you’re a regular listener you know, my numbers sometimes aren’t the most precise.

Moody’s Downgrade - is it a big deal?

Moodys downgrade of us debt …. Rates will go up because our debt can’t be trusted is what this means

If you think the debt is going to be an issue like Moodys - let me suggestion gold. In 2023 while the markets didn’t do much, gold was up 15% in a week. Can it move like that now? I think that move already happened, but keep an eye on it because republicans are in fighting about the debt.

But just be warned - the first time in 2011, that was the market lows on Monday (and 2 months later with the pullback). The debt downgrade was the bottom and the beginning of a 14 year bull market.

Here are more of my thoughts if you want to read them

The S&P may be range bound

And remember - I presented a thesis why I think we are range bound last week … I think this kind of talk means that range will hold true

But if you’re investing for a year or more - the odds are in your favor

$jpm is more bullish than most

Trendspider Strategies will be key in any market

And maybe the liberation day strategy in Trendspider ??? Which triggered a buy on Friday and back tests 9 years really well.

I’ve included the full screen so you can see the back tested returns of $QQQ in this strategy for the last 9 years winning 63% of the time. It’s a weekly candle chart so it’s built for long term investing.

And here are a bunch of free custom indicators to import

Bull or Bear market?

and if this is like dot bomb … we are a long way off from highs

So there’s your history lessons

And ray daleo has had a warning

Large money is still staying out of the market though

Warren Buffett’s Secret Stock he’s buying - what is it?

Berkshire is in the process of building a secret position. You may have seen the news of this. Berkshire Hathaway filed a regulatory report that disclosed it is withholding the identity of one or more new stock holdings by requesting confidential treatment from the SEC. What happens is to avoid a market disruption when select hedge funds notify the SEC, they let them build the position without letting the market know. If we knew when they started building the position, the price would artificially inflate and they would pay much more. It’s not a way of keeping the price down, but it’s more a way of keeping the market fair and even.

Warren Buffett decides which stocks to buy by focusing on the intrinsic value of businesses and seeking investments that are trading below that value. His main criteria include:

• Strong, consistent return on equity (ROE) over many years compared to industry peers.

• Healthy and growing profit margins.

• Low levels of debt relative to equity.

• A sustainable competitive advantage or “moat” that protects the business from competitors.

• A long, proven track record-often preferring companies with at least 10-15 years of solid performance.

• Predictable, growing earnings and cash flows.

• Buying only when the stock price offers a significant margin of safety below his estimate of intrinsic value, often calculated using discounted cash flow analysis.

Buffett views himself as buying businesses, not just stocks, and prioritizes quality, durability, and reasonable pricing over short-term market trends

Maybe it’s one of these under valued stocks?

Or maybe it’s one of these in the Warren Buffett screener that I built in Seeking Alpha

Go and import this by clicking the photo. I like $FRSH and $INTA but I don’t think they fit his profile.

The Week Ahead

This is a big week

All week - speeches by $nvda and $qcom CEOs at computex - an ai conference in Taiwan and already huge news for catalysts with these stocks down

Monday $msft conference and $jpm investor day

Tuesday $goog conference- could be huge for $goog to show off monetizing ai

Wed - $snow earnings - expect a bounce plus $Wrd and $urbn have earnings and high volatility - $urbn is a top 2025 seeking alpha stock

$SNOW - this trading range goes all the way back over 4 years to 2021.

Thu - big moves implied for $bull and $aap

It’s a big earnings week so pick your players. $panw is the only one from the core portfolio on Tuesday … I like it to break $200 again.

$PANW - the only Core Portfolio name reporting this week - I own a lot of this stock as the largest cybersecurity company.

Netlfix - did I make a mistake?

I trimmed $nflx and it’s at all time highs - some think the rally is just starting - I’m waiting for a pullback if I want to add more

$NFLX in the 4 hour algorithm in Trendspider. Still overbought the MacD has come down. Is it going higher?

Coinbase - I like it

I think $coin is a buy ….

$COIN in the 4 hour algorithm in Trendspider - beats buy and hold over the last 2 years with an average win of 34% and a current gain of over 65% since the buy signal just 39 days ago. Get the 4 hour algorithm when you sign up for an annual plan on Trendspider.

AI market - which stocks do you like?

Ai is the space - what stocks are you betting on? $tsla? $nvda?

Here’s a strategy for $nvda

It’s a good time too

Google - losing it’s way?

I feel the same way about $goog and it’s why I’ve been trimming even though the multiple is extremely low. I like their Waymo strategy and they have some other income streams coming up but I’m not sure any of it replaces completely that search revenue in the near term so I’m playing market dynamics since the market is 100% focused on search

But I could be wrong with their big conference this week being a catalyst too

The way I want to build a $10k portfolio today

Remember … you don’t need a bunch of names in a portfolio but you do need:

1 - a base - for me that was Apple … that’s my risk tolerance. For most it should be $voo or $qqq or a vanguard total mix

2 - 1-2 names you believe in and will let compound - add to them as they dip if the earnings and growth continue. If the market deems the story has changed and the stock slides on monthly candles - maybe re evaluate

3 - short term stocks to trade and win if you’d like and it fits your lifestyle

Remember - if you have a $10k portfolio. You could have $9,000 in $voo and $1,000 in $tsla or $nvda or $500 in both and those could grow to outsize the $9,000 in time. But if they don’t - having that $9,000 base is going to provide you a security blanket just in case you’re wrong. Don’t outsize a position to start with. Taking profits is your choice - I did not on $aapl and it was the right choice but many times it could be wrong like in $msft over a 10 year period or $amzn over the last few years.

Education

Ben looks back on if you panic sold and missed April 9 … his point - the past is the past - it’s done and timing the market often leads to anxiety and doubt when things don’t go your way. Rather than focusing on the past - focus on the future.

Druckenmiller - I like the thought of not investing in today - invest in tomorrow. Have a thesis and a plan and be flexible if you’re wrong.

And I don’t do options - I don’t recommend them but plenty of people use them. If you want to learn - go with ed

And don’t get rich quick - it’s a long term game

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And here’s a good quote from Peter lynch

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