4-17 Pod - Trump vs Powell - it could get ugly. I bought gold stocks in Feb and gave my hypothesis to Paid Members. Think about upgrading. NVDA in China - what to do with chips - and more!

My take

It’s Thursday with the markets closed tomorrow. While I should have done what I thought about last night which was buy TQQQ thinking “Any reaction in the market is an over reaction”, I didn’t because it’s just too risky for me right now. I am glad I have some investments in gold as that’s been the trade now for 2 months as the market has slipped. I look at United Healthcare ( UNH 0.00%↑ ) today and think - that’s one that will bounce back and trades in that weekly range. I also look at chips and think they will be good at some point, but it’s longer term.

I’m more tempted now that we are 1 week out from Trump’s massive move where he said tariffs were on hold to thinking - the wins will be smaller and you’ll need to take them faster. I think the war with Powell is just getting started and while the war with China is one thing - the war with Powell is another. All of it ends up IMO will bring the markets down before he concedes and brings the markets back up so I want to be careful with my trades and be sure to identify what my timeframe for any purchase I make right now.

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Pod Notes

Thursday

All markets are closed on Friday so be sure you want to hold what you’re holding over a long weekend

Taxes

I paid more in taxes last year than I made EVER in a salary. It’s an honor but it is stressful. I had a meeting with my accountant and what’s funny is that I wound up paying 20% on my long term capital gains to give you an idea of my income. The majority of that income came from long term capital gains sales that were made in December.

Paid Newsletter benefits

Paid member benefits of the newsletter - my goal is to find some stocks that make you the annual fee back. Let me just point out a couple this year that I did for paid members.

You’ve gotten $iag and gold on Feb 4th

And on Feb 12th you got $nem and GOLD 0.00%↑

And this is shocking about gold now

Not every newsletter includes specific trades nor do I release my own portfolio but many of the ideas I put out there work out. I won’t ever claim to be 100% but now that I’ve got 3 years of the newsletter under my belt - my track record is really good.

Here’s a gold one for free from Trendspider - so don’t come at me if it doesn’t work

Before piling in to gold now though … just understand it’s already crowded. It could still run but like anything in this market - take profits

When you compare it long term - it does look like there’s opportunity, but maybe short term - GLD has a better chance.

$GDX vs. $GLD over 5 years

Or maybe $NEM has more room to run?

Add in $NEM and maybe that’s going to continue running?

One thing I think of during this time is that if you have trades - protect profits. Use charts to see where the stock trades are moving and don’t let profits go away, but also don’t cut them too soon. $NEM was a suggestion to paid members with the weekly price action getting back above the 200 day and it under performing gold as a whole. I’ve added to the position since then, but I’m in a holding pattern. I may or may not alert people when I sell because the goal of the newsletter is for you to make your own decisions. It’s an idea newsletter.

One stock I brought up that may actually get KILLED is $META. Yes I bought it higher - I’m not concerned, but there are some concerns to know about

1. Competition from an Open AI social media app that might be in production to rival Instagram

2. The FTC lawsuit that’s going on where they are trying to break up the company

3. Temu announced they are reducing ad spend here in the US - it was mainly on Facebook and instagram

Market

Before we talk about the market, here’s a survey of retail traders that I found super interesting

And the biggest movers of the day

But I did mention yesterday - $unh on weakness can be bought - they brought down their guidance and here’s what happens when you do that …. 20% loss - here’s a good list of other names that might rebound as well

$UNH weekly chart showing a clear range since 2021

Yesterday

It sold off a little and then Powell came in and if you didn’t hear his press conference, let me summarize it. I hate Trump, I won’t help him so unless he stabilizes things, he won’t get the rate cuts he desires. I did find it funny that Bessent had to put it in an interview that he and Powell have breakfast once per week and they have a good relationship because they’ve already floated ideas for who will replace Powell.

And then today Trump slams him pretty much indicating if he could fire him - he would - he wants rates lower. He praised the EU for lowering rates.

NVDA, AVGO CRDO - Chips in general - I just have mentioned these 3 because I’ve owned these 3. I don’t own AVGO anymore but I want to at some point again. But there are things to think about.

Let’s talk about $nvda first. Yes the valuation is low compared to history but things changed and it was around last year but we are seeing an even bigger change now. The chips have become a commodity and what’s worse is they are a political commodity. So now the government is using chips like countries have traditionally used oil and other commodities. That means multiples may come even further down. It also means growth investors will find other places to put their money.

The other thing about this is why the write off? If demand is so high for these chips - why can’t they find another buyer? Or is this some type of tax benefit or something else - it just doesn’t add up. Maybe people don’t want to buy the older chips and they are buying Blackwell, but you won’t know that until the earnings call.

I’m holding what I have now. Nobody knows if a deal is going to get struck, but China is catching up in technology

Jenson went to Beijing too so don’t throw out everything - just be careful and maybe trade the swings

Warning about Chinese stocks

And don’t hold Chinese stocks - trade them … it’s not worth it if Trump or Beijing say “no us shares”

Any Cramer crying moment has been a great buy

Now you might say - what about $aapl??

I continue to think that when Cramer is on tv in tears talking about a stock you own - you buy more. $AAPL pulled forward all their iPhones so this quarter will most likely be fine but next quarter for Apple and most everyone will be a mess.

$AAPL weekly chart showing the range, but can the $200 price hold as relative support? Cramer is right - the valuation is stretched.

Taiwan Semi - TSM 0.00%↑ earnings were crazy good

One I missed is this story on Monday $mp

And did you see $htz??? This one traded well after the announcement

Country ETF’s might be good wins

Keep an eye on countries that are negotiating and you can trade those etfs …. I think the other countries will see bigger gains because it means access to the us consumer

Any reaction is an over reaction

And to show you any reaction in the market is an over reaction - look at $apld up 20% a day after they were down 30% on an earnings miss. I asked perplexity why

Earnings

$AXP beat but is down - I think this is just considering the potential US recession

$NFLX earnings today - I would say trim in to this earnings. You can always buy back in. I just sold half of the position in my parents account and my account which was a rather large amount.

$NFLX showing the last April earnings pullback. I locked in profits and can always get back in.