The world of Apple and how I'm going to use the bounce in my accounts - how I'm trading Amazon, SMCI and the week ahead
I was traveling last week, but I'm back and there's a lot to review and talk about, but what's more important is looking forward
I was in Utah last week hiking during much of the earnings drama around AMZN, SMCI, AMD and AAPL. I personally own all of these stocks so since the catalyst is gone, what am I doing with my portfolios. I was mostly out of internet coverage for the past 4 days with only sporadic ability to hop online, but I’ll go over my reactions to each of them here.
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Apple - the big fish
My reaction to earnings - they were good and better than expected, but not great. I didn’t like the numbers in the charts that are shown here in the Seeking Alpha “In the Charts” which they do for many stocks.
AI - The main thing I did like was the guidance of AI for WWDC in June and perhaps an iPhone 16 refresh cycle (meaning they will sell more devices) with some type of exclusive AI feature set in iPhone 16 (think enhanced personal assistant is what I’m hoping).
Historic Buy Back - I also liked the $110B buyback announcement. Just to put that in perspective and to see how AAPL buybacks compare to the largest buybacks in the history of the stock market, here’s a Bloomberg chart of the largest buyback authorizations ever announced.
The Buffett Effect - My personal belief is the buyback was absolutely directly correlated to the news yesterday that Berkshire sold $38.9B of AAPL stock in Q1 while it was down 11%. This may have been the reason the stock fell 11% YTD as well because that’s an enormous amount of shares on the market.
I liked Warren’s answer that it will remain their largest holding by far and that he hasn’t lost faith in AAPL as a company and it was more about position size. I also thought this tweet from Becky Quick was important as well.
Remember - when your largest shareholder starts selling, the investor relations team at AAPL and the Board knew this before they made the earnings announcement. That’s why I think they went with the largest buyback in history to “soften the blow” as they knew that news would come out Saturday.
My Take - I’m going to look at doing some things with my personal portfolio to adjust AAPL the way Berkshire did. I remain confident the stock is worth $200/share at some point and time this year so I will use that as a guide to trim as we get closer to that price. I will most likely also start selling some long dated covered calls at that price in order to collect some premium if there is further downside as WWDC better have a big announcement. I think the $200 price revolves around that event.
AAPL in the 4 hour algorithm chart
SMCI in the charts and what I see now
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