My Take
The podcast is my journal so some days there’s a lot for me to cover (like today) and some days I’m just perusing around. With NVDA 0.00%↑ earnings today - that will most likely confirm the continued spending by hyper scalers on AI chips and infrastructure most give a boost to anything physical in the AI market. Then you have CRM 0.00%↑ and SNOW 0.00%↑ reporting which should give the market an idea of any of the actual cannibalization of software by AI. Remember - ADBE 0.00%↑ is still growing so the market is taking them down for what they anticipate is future slower growth. CRM 0.00%↑ valuation looks really good right now while SNOW 0.00%↑ is still an expensive gamble. Tom Lee has called this the bottom of software, but you still see some software being expensive.
The market is in fear mode and there’s a ton of uncertainty. The state of the union address didn’t exactly squash the tariff uncertainty, we still have a Fed chair to get nominated, AI short report scenarios took the market down while earnings are doing really well showing strength and 60% of the stocks in the S&P are beating the S&P. That expansion and it should be pushing us higher, but the market remains fearful. If last year is your guide book, there should be some geopolitical concern for the upcoming months, but the solid earnings growth and expansion of the market all point to a very bullish scenario.
In fact I just had a friend ask me about buying MU 0.00%↑ right now. He asked “Is $425 too much to pay?” So I asked Sidekick. I’ll give you just the screenshots below of the answer. Literally Sidekick has paid for the annual subscription fee with just a couple of answers it gave me this year on stocks like CRDO 0.00%↑ APP 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ and so many others.
A thoughtful, logical approach to buying a stock even at these elevated prices during a time of uncertainty. I love the advice and I’ve been following it.
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SEEKING ALPHA
Seeking Alpha is my go to. I literally created the narrative that I put out today in the podcast by going to the Market Data page and looking at the YTD winners by sector, factors and other categories they have easily labeled and laid out. I find stocks by going to the TOP STOCKS section and finding quality fundamental names. The Bundle is the sweet spot because it comes with Alpha Picks - a data driven portfolio that historically has beaten the S&P. Get a FREE 7 day trial on Seeking Alpha Premium.
🎧 Pod Notes
Wednesday
Software Bottom 🍑
And do we have a bottom in software? Some of these stocks are INCREDIBLY cheap.
Short report
You can go and find Citrini as the top Substack Finance newsletter. It’s going to cause market ripples.
The market over reacted based on fear
And how worried should you be about this?
Investing Experts Podcast
I was on Investing Experts Podcast and brought up a bunch of things you may be interested in. General things - nothing super specific. But I talked up sidekick and showed Rena after the podcast how the system I have of using seeking alpha and Trendspider worked … she was like “woah” …. So I got her a trial of Trendspider so I’ll wait to hear back.
But I showed her 2 Alpha Picks names that Sidekick chose for a 6 month investment. I showed her 3 energy names that Sidekick picked from the XLE 0.00%↑ and more.
If you’re a seeking alpha subscriber - go and comment on it so they have me back on.
But I did point out - MSFT 0.00%↑ right now has a forward PE that’s around the same as XOM 0.00%↑ . MSFT 0.00%↑ is growing revenue by 17% year over year and XOM 0.00%↑ is losing 4% per year. Which stock are you betting on right now because YTD - XOM 0.00%↑ is up 24% and MSFT 0.00%↑ has lost 20% - know what you own.
My Portfolio
And Rena asked me what I own - I own very few stocks outside of Alpha Picks. I’ve gone over them before, but I still do own quite a bit of $MSFT.
My best performers
AMD 0.00%↑ - a top 2026 stock and one I bought the dip on
IREN 0.00%↑ - I have been clear on where and why I like this one with the paid subs
STRL 0.00%↑ - an Alpha Pick that I’ll mention in a few minutes
My worst performers
WFC 0.00%↑ - which honestly I thought I had sold off at $87 but still have it in a portfolio
PANW 0.00%↑ - which I need to dump and reinvest that in to memory
CRDO 0.00%↑ - as this dips to $100 - I’ll be buying more
Office Hours
And if you were on the Office Hours yesterday - I mentioned that IBM 0.00%↑ was an over reaction. You’re seeing it - $370 price target reiterated from Jeffries.
I also used Sidekick quite a bit to go over TTAN 0.00%↑ NBIS 0.00%↑ STRL 0.00%↑ COHR 0.00%↑ and CIFR 0.00%↑ earnings which popped 15% yesterday. I’ll have more of that today later in the podcast so stay tuned.
These happen every Tuesday at 9am but I am going to start shuffling the time a little to accommodate folks in other time zones around the world. I had Perplexity analyze the subscribers and there are 23 different time zones. So I will try and make it at least a few times in a year where folks can attend easily. We’ve had Dubai, England, Southeast Asia and all 3 of the US time Zones join us but I know Australia and New Zealand have some folks and so I’ll do what I can. If you’re a subscriber and you want an office hours in your time zone - go and tell me what time in the eastern New York time zone you request in the substack chat.
Alpha Picks
In the Alpha Picks portfolio - STRL 0.00%↑ was the days winner up 6% and we went over this with Sidekick yesterday in the office hours segment. Clear direction - clear reason and clear strategy was given. If you own this one - I’d suggest watching earnings closely as Sidekick had some warnings and key levels.
In my Alpha Picks portfolio - only 1 stock has a loss of more than $200 and I have high 6 figures in this portfolio. Managing the positions is key letting the winners run and allowing the losers to just stay at the holding % is key for me. Managing this portfolio is either VERY simple where you let them tell you when to sell or it’s a little more difficult, but I combine Sidekick by letting it analyze the portfolio and guiding me on what deserves to be overweight vs. what deserves to be cut.
I was going over my alpha picks portfolio last night looking at the gold miners and I saw one of the big short traders Danny Moses on cnbc last night and his biggest conviction was gold miners. He said even if gold were to crash below $4k - and that would be a major correction - the miners are still making money. The miners also did not crash as much as the commodities over the past 2 weeks.
As an example - SSRM 0.00%↑ which was chosen in June of last year - it’s up 40% ytd vs GLD 0.00%↑ up 20% ytd.
Again - this may have already paid for many alpha picks subscribers annual subscription for years to come in just this stock.
It’s not all winners. PARR 0.00%↑ just reported earnings and it’s down 10% in pre market. This one is a pick that’s down since it was chosen. But since I have trimmed this down to the holding % I’ve limited my losses in this.
Abiding by the Peter lynch quote that’s attributed to Warren Buffett
Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds
The quant changes and the chart starts to show weakness - don’t water a weed. But until the portfolio decides to get rid of it based on its rules - I hold on to the holding % outlined in the portfolio. Which for $parr is .56%. Your portfolio will barely show a down day if you’re only holding .56% of a stock and it gets killed.
Memory is still running
Would you short SNDK 0.00%↑ ? Because Citron is short.
They point out the cyclical nature of memory and Samsung having a hold on the market. But just like Burry - remember - it could be about timing
And do you want to follow someone who literally called for shorting TSLA 0.00%↑ , NVDA 0.00%↑ and is the basis for getting steam rolled in the meme trading of GME 0.00%↑ ?
Or maybe you want to listen to Uttam on Seeking Alpha
But be careful … if MS 0.00%↑ is right - you may start to see some stock slowdown in q2. They think pricing is going to pull down demand.
And was this the big announcement?
Interesting stock
PYPL 0.00%↑ - up 15% in just a few days - now Stripe may actually be interested. They will pay a premium and the market cap is only $40B
So I went and asked Perplexity - is the upside of say $55 per share worth the risk?
Hamid remains bullish on RIVN 0.00%↑
I’m still not sold but this interview I will watch
NFLX 0.00%↑ may fly after they get out of this deal.
Chris Camillo is pushing this stock
BE 0.00%↑ - buy the dip?
He also brings up HOOD 0.00%↑ as a crypto arbitrage trade. He says there’s a time delay where $hood moves after Bitcoin.
Huge earnings tonight
CRCL 0.00%↑ - you’ve seen crypto get destroyed and yet a stable coin is killing it with earnings. Down 22% ytd and up 14% with the reaction to earnings.
NVDA 0.00%↑ - will it finally break out?
Software - will we see news of strength? What will the market react to anything that’s even questionable? CRM 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ - will they show us anything?
ZM 0.00%↑ - since the pandemic it’s been a horrible stock to own and hasn’t done anything
See what sidekick thinks
